· Analysis updated 14:44 UTC
Al Shabab vs Al Jahra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.28 for Al Jahra, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Al Shabab the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Shabab win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shabab home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Jahra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Al Shabab
- 2026-10-10T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:50:00.000Z · H vs Kazma · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-26T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Jahra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Tadhamon · 3-1 (W)
Al Jahra
- 2026-09-05T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T15:45:00.000Z · Al Shabab 3-2 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · Al Shabab 1-2 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2026-06-11T17:45:00.000Z · Al Shabab 1-0 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2025-12-19T13:00:00.000Z · Al Shabab 2-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2025-05-03T14:35:00.000Z · Al Shabab 3-0 Al Jahra (Division 1)
- 2025-03-28T18:30:00.000Z · Al Shabab 1-2 Al Jahra (Division 1)
- 2025-02-03T14:50:00.000Z · Al Shabab 2-0 Al Jahra (Division 1)
- 2025-01-05T16:00:00.000Z · Al Shabab 1-2 Al Jahra (Division 1)
- 2024-05-13T14:40:00.000Z · Al Shabab 2-0 Al Jahra (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kazma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Fahaheel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Shabab win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.