· Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Al-Shabab vs Al-Nahda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Shabab and 1.44 for Al-Nahda, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Al-Shabab the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Shabab home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Nahda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Shabab to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Al-Shabab and 1.44 for Al-Nahda, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Al-Shabab
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oman Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sur · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-24T15:05:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Seeb · 0-0 (D)
Al-Nahda
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Ibri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · H vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Seeb · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al-Shabab · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.