· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Al Shabab vs Al Nasr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.41 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shabab home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Nasr away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Al Shabab and 1.41 for Al Nasr, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Al Shabab
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fayha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 1-1 (D)
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.