Ahmed bin Ali Stadium · Analysis updated 03:50 UTC
Al Shahaniya vs Al-Arabi SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Shahaniya and 2.00 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Al-Arabi SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Arabi SC win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shahaniya home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Arabi SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Arabi SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Al Shahaniya and 2.00 for Al-Arabi SC, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Al Shahaniya
- 2026-10-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
Al-Arabi SC
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shamal · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Arabi SC win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.