Ahmed bin Ali Stadium · Analysis updated 12:00 UTC
Al Shahaniya vs Al Wakrah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Al Shahaniya and 1.45 for Al Wakrah, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Al Shahaniya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Shahaniya win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shahaniya home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Wakrah away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Shahaniya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Al Shahaniya and 1.45 for Al Wakrah, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Al Shahaniya
- 2026-10-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Duhail SC · 1-1 (D)
Al Wakrah
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Sailiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Shahaniya win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.