· Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Al Shamal II vs Al Waab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Al Shamal II and 1.34 for Al Waab, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Al Waab the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Waab win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shamal II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Waab away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Waab to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 20% / 28% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Al Shamal II and 1.34 for Al Waab, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–09.2%
Recent form
Al Shamal II
- 2026-09-08T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Bidda SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Waab · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Kharaitiyat · 0-0 (D)
- 2015-04-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Sailiya B · 3-1 (W)
- 2015-04-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Umm Salal B · 0-0 (D)
Al Waab
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs UMM Salal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Waab win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.