Al-Shamal SC Stadium · Analysis updated 06:00 UTC
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Al Shamal and 1.50 for Al-Sailiya, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Al Shamal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Shamal win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shamal home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Sailiya away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–16.3%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
Al Shamal
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tractor Sazi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Duhail SC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-1 (D)
Al-Sailiya
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-30T14:45:00.000Z · Al Shamal 0-0 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2025-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · Al Shamal 2-1 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2023-02-05T16:00:00.000Z · Al Shamal 0-5 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2022-08-10T16:40:00.000Z · Al Shamal 1-2 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2022-04-13T19:00:00.000Z · Al Shamal 2-3 Al-Sailiya (QFA Cup)
- 2022-01-07T13:15:00.000Z · Al Shamal 2-0 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2021-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · Al Shamal 2-3 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2021-04-29T19:00:00.000Z · Al Shamal 2-4 Al-Sailiya (QFA Cup)
- 2015-03-06T15:00:00.000Z · Al Shamal 1-2 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
- 2014-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · Al Shamal 2-2 Al-Sailiya (Stars League)
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Shamal win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.