Al Bayt Stadium · Analysis updated 13:27 UTC
Al Shamal vs Muaither SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al Shamal and 0.92 for Muaither SC, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Al Shamal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Shamal win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muaither SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Shamal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Al Shamal and 0.92 for Muaither SC, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Al Shamal
Muaither SC
- 2026-10-01T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Khor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Rayyan SC B · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
QSL Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Duhail SC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | UMM Salal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Al Waab | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Al Wakrah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Lusail City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Al Shamal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Al-Rayyan SC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Qatar SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Ahli Doha | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Kharaitiyat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Markhiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Al-Sailiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Al Mesaimeer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Arabi SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Al Bidda SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Al-Khor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Shamal win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.