· Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Al Shorta vs Al-Qasim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Al Shorta and 0.78 for Al-Qasim, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Al Shorta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Shorta win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shorta home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Qasim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Shorta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Al Shorta and 0.78 for Al-Qasim, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Al Shorta
- 2026-10-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs East Bengal II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Talaba · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Kahrabaa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Seeb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghaz Al Shamal · 0-0 (D)
Al-Qasim
- 2026-06-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mosul · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Najaf · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Naft Maysan · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Zawra'a · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Duhok · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Shorta win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.