Al Taawon Arena · Referee I. Barton · Analysis updated 10:05 UTC
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.03 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win
73.6% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Taawon home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.4%
- 0–116.2%
- 0–311.1%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Al Taawon
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Diriyah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nahda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-6 (L)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Taawon · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NEOM · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T15:50:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2026-02-24T19:00:00.000Z · Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2025-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2024-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2024-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2023-12-11T14:45:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (King's Cup)
- 2023-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2023-03-10T17:30:00.000Z · Al Taawon 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
- 2022-10-02T15:20:00.000Z · Al Taawon 2-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Hilal Saudi FC win, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.