· Analysis updated 21:20 UTC
Al Tadhamon vs Al Qadsia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al Tadhamon and 2.35 for Al Qadsia, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Al Qadsia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Qadsia win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Tadhamon home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Qadsia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Al Tadhamon
- 2026-09-05T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Salmiyah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kazma · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 1-1 (D)
Al Qadsia
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T17:25:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-1 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2025-10-31T14:30:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-3 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2025-04-20T14:25:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-5 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2025-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-3 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2024-09-28T15:05:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-3 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2023-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-5 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2022-11-03T15:50:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-2 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2022-03-08T15:15:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-3 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2021-12-10T14:20:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 2-3 Al Qadsia (Premier League)
- 2021-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-1 Al Qadsia (Emir Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Qadsia win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.