· Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Al Tadhamon vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al Tadhamon and 1.27 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Al Tadhamon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Tadhamon home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sahel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Al Tadhamon
- 2026-09-05T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Salmiyah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kazma · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 1-1 (D)
Al Sahel
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-02T18:30:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 2-0 Al Sahel (Division 1)
- 2024-02-14T15:05:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 3-0 Al Sahel (Division 1)
- 2023-11-05T00:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-0 Al Sahel (Division 1)
- 2023-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-1 Al Sahel (Division 1)
- 2023-05-07T14:40:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-3 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2023-04-10T18:30:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 3-2 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2023-02-15T16:15:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2022-10-27T14:35:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-2 Al Sahel (Crown Prince Cup)
- 2022-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
- 2020-12-07T13:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-1 Al Sahel (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.