· Analysis updated 19:04 UTC
Al Tadhamon vs Kazma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Tadhamon and 1.95 for Kazma, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Kazma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kazma win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Tadhamon home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kazma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 6.94 | 13.1% | 14.6% | 6.85 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 77.9% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 47.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.81 | 52.5% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.41 | 64.6% | 64.4% | 1.55 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 47.5% | 47.2% | 2.12 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 35.9% | 35.6% | 2.81 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.04 | 86.2% | 85.4% | 1.17 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.75 | 52.7% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.2% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -1.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al Tadhamon
- 2026-09-05T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Salmiyah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kazma · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 1-1 (D)
Kazma
- 2026-10-23T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Jahra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-3 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2026-02-17T13:50:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-0 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2025-09-18T15:15:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-0 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2025-02-01T14:55:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 0-4 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2024-09-14T17:35:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 2-1 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2023-02-25T16:25:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 2-5 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2022-10-14T14:45:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 2-2 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2022-04-13T18:30:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-2 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2021-12-30T16:45:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 2-4 Kazma (Premier League)
- 2020-11-07T14:25:00.000Z · Al Tadhamon 1-2 Kazma (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kazma win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.