· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Al Taliya vs Damascus Al-Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Al Taliya and 0.63 for Damascus Al-Ahli, a combined total of 1.26. That distribution gives Al Taliya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 30%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 30% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Damascus Al-Ahli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 41% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Al Taliya and 0.63 for Damascus Al-Ahli, a combined 1.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 13% and both teams to score at 22%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–028.3%
- 1–017.9%
- 0–117.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Al Taliya
Damascus Al-Ahli
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shorta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Foutoua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Foutoua · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hottin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaish · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Karama | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Shorta | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Jaish | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Qamishli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Nawaeir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Hottin | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Wathba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Taliya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tishreen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Horriya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Foutoua | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 13%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.