· Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Al Taliya vs Jabala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al Taliya and 0.60 for Jabala, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Al Taliya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Taliya win
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jabala away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Taliya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 21% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Al Taliya and 0.60 for Jabala, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 2–014.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Al Taliya
Jabala
- 2026-07-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tishreen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Taliya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ittihad | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 58 | 73 |
| 2 | Wathba | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 43 | 72 |
| 3 | Al Wahda | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Al Karama | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 58 |
| 5 | Al Taliya | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Hottin | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 45 |
| 7 | Tishreen | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 8 | Jaish | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | -7 | 41 |
| 9 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 10 | Horriya | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -4 | 35 |
| 11 | Shorta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -18 | 33 |
| 12 | Foutoua | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | -17 | 30 |
| 13 | Omaya SC | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -17 | 24 |
| 14 | Khan Shaykhun SC | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -27 | 23 |
| 15 | Jabala | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -33 | 22 |
| 16 | Al Shouleh | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -37 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Taliya win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.