· Analysis updated 19:24 UTC
Al Taraji vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Taraji and 1.22 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Al Taraji the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Taraji home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Taraji to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Al Taraji and 1.22 for Al Sahel, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Al Taraji
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Rawdhah · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ain · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-03-31T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Afif · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Entesar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Washm · 0-5 (L)
Al Sahel
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sharq | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Entesar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Al-Wajj | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Baish | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Kawkab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Hada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Rawdhah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Taraji | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Al-Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Qalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Rayan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Qous | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Shoalah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Arar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Najoom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Al Safa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Al Jubail | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 23 | Mudhar Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Afif | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Al Qwarah | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.