· Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Al Taraji vs Tuwaiq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al Taraji and 1.79 for Tuwaiq, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Tuwaiq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Taraji home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tuwaiq away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tuwaiq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Al Taraji and 1.79 for Tuwaiq, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.1%
Recent form
Al Taraji
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Rawdhah · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ain · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-03-31T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Afif · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Entesar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Washm · 0-5 (L)
Tuwaiq
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shoalah · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Rawdhah · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Washm · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Entesar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Entesar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Al-Kawkab | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Al Sharq | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Wajj | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Rayan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Al Shoalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Arar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Rawdhah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Baish | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Arabi SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Taraji | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Qous | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Al Jubail | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Hada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Afif | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Al Qwarah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | Al Sahel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Al Najoom | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.