Al-Dhaid Stadium · Analysis updated 06:33 UTC
Al Thaid vs Al Jazira Al Hamra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al Thaid and 1.00 for Al Jazira Al Hamra, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Al Thaid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Thaid win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Thaid home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Jazira Al Hamra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Thaid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Al Thaid and 1.00 for Al Jazira Al Hamra, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.9%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.1%
Recent form
Al Thaid
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazira Al Hamra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Ittifaq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-28T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Hamriyah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Dibba Al-Fujairah · 2-0 (W)
Al Jazira Al Hamra
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Thaid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dibba Al-Fujairah · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Fujairah SC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Forte Virtus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Gulf United · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Emirates Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Palm City | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gulf United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Dubai City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Thaid win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.