Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium · Referee F. Al Jaloud · Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
Al Ula vs Al-Raed Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Ula and 1.00 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Al Ula the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ula win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ula home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Raed away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ula to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Al Ula and 1.00 for Al-Raed, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Al Ula
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Jeddah Club · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Damac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-0 (W)
Al-Raed
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeddah Club · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Zulfi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Jeel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · Al Ula 2-0 Al-Raed (Division 1)
- 2026-05-02T17:50:00.000Z · Al Ula 2-1 Al-Raed (Division 1)
- 2026-01-07T12:30:00.000Z · Al Ula 2-3 Al-Raed (Division 1)
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Jabalain | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Al Najma | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Anwar | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Al-Adalah | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Jeddah Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Al Orubah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Bukayriyah | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ula win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.