· Analysis updated 04:12 UTC
Al Wahda U23 vs Al Nasr U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.82 expected goals for Al Wahda U23 and 1.37 for Al Nasr U23, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Al Wahda U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Wahda U23 win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
2.82 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Wahda U23 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Nasr U23 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Wahda U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.82 goals for Al Wahda U23 and 1.37 for Al Nasr U23, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–06.0%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–25.7%
Recent form
Al Wahda U23
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr U23 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T14:10:00.000Z · A vs Ajman U23 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:10:00.000Z · H vs Al Dhafra U23 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-05-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Khorfakkan U23 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-07T14:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Wasl U23 · 0-1 (L)
Al Nasr U23
- 2026-09-11T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazira U23 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:50:00.000Z · A vs Ajman U23 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Ain U23 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda U23 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:10:00.000Z · A vs Ittihad Kalba U23 · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League U23 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain U23 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajman U23 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Wahda U23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Sharjah U23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Jazira U23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Dhafra U23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Ittihad Kalba U23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Wasl U23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | United FC U23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Hatta U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Al Nasr U23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | Khorfakkan U23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Bani Yas U23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Wahda U23 win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.