· Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Al-Wajj vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Wajj and 0.91 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Al-Wajj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Wajj win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Wajj home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Wajj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Al-Wajj and 0.91 for Al Sahel, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Al-Wajj
- 2026-10-16T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Nairyah · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetten FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Qalah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-27T13:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayan · 3-4 (L)
Al Sahel
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sharq | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Entesar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Al-Wajj | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Baish | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Kawkab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Hada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Rawdhah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Taraji | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Al-Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Qalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Rayan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Qous | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Shoalah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Arar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Najoom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Al Safa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Al Jubail | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 23 | Mudhar Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Afif | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Al Qwarah | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Wajj win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.