Zabeel Stadium · Analysis updated 06:45 UTC
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.07 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Al-Wasl FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al-Wasl FC win
69.7% probability
Expected goals
2.57 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Wasl FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Dhafra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Wasl FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.07 for Al-Dhafra, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–17.9%
- 3–07.4%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Al-Wasl FC
- 2026-10-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Baniyas SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ain · 3-2 (W)
Al-Dhafra
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Baniyas SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Wasl FC win, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.