Zabeel Stadium · Referee J. Valenzuela · Analysis updated 06:38 UTC
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.70 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Wasl FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–26.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.55 | 60.3% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +2.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.45 | 37.2% | 38.6% | 2.59 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.08 | 44.1% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.98 | 30.8% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.70 | 54.5% | 55.1% | 1.81 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.2% | 68.5% | 1.46 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.3% | 76.4% | 1.31 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 59.7% | 1.68 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.45 | 62.8% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 25.1% | 23.6% | 4.24 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.35 | 39.7% | 37.3% | 2.68 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al-Wasl FC
- 2026-10-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Baniyas SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ain · 3-2 (W)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2026-02-25T17:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2026-01-11T15:45:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 1-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2025-05-03T16:45:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 2-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2025-04-02T16:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Presidents Cup)
- 2024-12-17T15:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 0-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2024-12-13T15:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Super Cup)
- 2024-05-26T15:40:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2023-12-24T15:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 2-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2023-12-11T15:30:00.000Z · Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (League Cup)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.