Wiklöf Holding Arena · Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Åland United W vs Ilves W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Åland United W and 1.65 for Ilves W, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Åland United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Åland United W win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Åland United W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Åland United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 19% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Åland United W and 1.65 for Ilves W, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–16.6%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Åland United W
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Gnistan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HPS W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK W · 1-2 (L)
Ilves W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Åland United W win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.