Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Dinamo Bryansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Alaniya Vladikavkaz and 0.68 for Dinamo Bryansk, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Alaniya Vladikavkaz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Bryansk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaniya Vladikavkaz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Alaniya Vladikavkaz and 0.68 for Dinamo Bryansk, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–017.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
Dinamo Bryansk
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0-2 Dinamo Bryansk (Second League A - Division A Gold)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 4-0 Dinamo Bryansk (Second League A - Division A Gold)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1-2 Dinamo Bryansk (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2026-04-05T12:00:00.000Z · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2-0 Dinamo Bryansk (Second League A - Division A Silver)
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.