Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium · Referee Adnan Deniz Kayatepe, Türkiye · Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.42 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Beşiktaş the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alanyaspor home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Beşiktaş away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beşiktaş to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Alanyaspor and 1.42 for Beşiktaş, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Alanyaspor
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Göztepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 1-0 (W)
Beşiktaş
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Amed | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -20 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.