Alanya Oba Stadium · Analysis updated 17:57 UTC
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.78 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Alanyaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.1% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alanyaspor home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Konyaspor away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alanyaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 32% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Alanyaspor and 0.78 for Konyaspor, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Alanyaspor
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Göztepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 1-0 (W)
Konyaspor
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Başakşehir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.