Alashkert Stadium · Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Alashkert vs Van Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Alashkert and 0.73 for Van, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Alashkert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alashkert win
77.0% probability
Expected goals
2.57 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alashkert home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Van away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alashkert to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Alashkert and 0.73 for Van, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 3–010.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 47.8% | 2.09 | +2.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.01 | 89.6% | 91.6% | 1.09 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 14.00 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.90 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.45 | 63.8% | 63.9% | 1.56 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.06 | 85.3% | 85.4% | 1.17 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.55 | 36.3% | 36.1% | 2.77 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.18 | 77.2% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.60 | 16.3% | 14.6% | 6.85 | -1.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.60 | 25.1% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.67 | 54.5% | 52.2% | 1.92 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alashkert
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Van · 4-0 (W)
Van
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alashkert win, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.