Estadio Mendizorrotza · Referee A. Quintero · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Alaves and 1.57 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Madrid win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alaves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 52.1% vs market 46.7%, edge +5.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +5.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.6% | 74.6% | 1.34 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.20 | 21.8% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.8% | 77.6% | 1.29 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.73 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 1.91 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.7% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -5.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alaves
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-18T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2025-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2024-11-23T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2024-04-21T16:30:00.000Z · Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2023-10-29T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2022-04-02T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-4 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2021-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2021-03-21T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
- 2021-01-03T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Madrid win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.