Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alaves and 0.90 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alaves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osasuna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Alaves win44%

Draw29%

Osasuna win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.6%
1–113.1%
0–011.6%
0–110.5%
2–09.1%

Recent form

Alaves

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)

Osasuna

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · Alaves 5-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
2026-04-05T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
2025-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-3 Osasuna (La Liga)
2025-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
2024-12-08T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 2-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
2024-08-10T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-1 Osasuna (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-03-04T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
2023-10-01T14:15:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
2023-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · Alaves 3-2 Osasuna (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-04-10T12:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Osasuna (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.