Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Alaves and 1.09 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.

Model pick

Alaves to Win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.07 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Alaves win60%

Draw21%

Rayo Vallecano win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.6%
2–09.1%
1–08.8%
3–16.8%

Why the model likes this

Alaves home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Vallecano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Alaves and 1.09 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Alaves

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)

Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.