Alaves vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Alaves and 1.68 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alaves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Alaves win36%

Draw23%

Real Madrid win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–28.6%
2–18.0%
2–26.7%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Alaves

2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)

Real Madrid

2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-21T19:30:00.000Z · Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2025-12-14T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2025-04-13T14:15:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2024-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-3 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2024-05-14T19:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-5 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2023-12-21T20:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2022-02-19T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-3 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2021-08-14T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-4 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2021-01-23T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-4 Real Madrid (La Liga)
2020-11-28T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.