Estadio Mendizorrotza · Referee M. Sesma · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Alaves vs Valencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Alaves and 0.60 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alaves win
75.8% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alaves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Alaves and 0.60 for Valencia, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.6%
- 1–012.7%
- 3–011.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
Alaves
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
Valencia
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2026-03-08T20:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-3 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2025-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2025-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2024-12-22T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-2 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2024-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Valencia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-05T16:30:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2023-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Valencia (La Liga)
- 2023-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Valencia (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-13T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 2-1 Valencia (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alaves win, at 75.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.