Estadio Carlos Belmonte · Referee Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain · Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Albacete vs Eibar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Albacete and 2.05 for Eibar, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Eibar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eibar win
74.0% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albacete home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eibar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.4%
- 0–116.0%
- 0–311.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Albacete
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Granada CF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 0-2 (L)
Eibar
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eldense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta de Vigo II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-24T18:30:00.000Z · Albacete 0-3 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2025-11-08T15:15:00.000Z · Albacete 2-3 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2025-01-18T17:30:00.000Z · Albacete 1-1 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2024-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · Albacete 0-1 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2024-04-28T19:00:00.000Z · Albacete 2-1 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2023-11-12T20:00:00.000Z · Albacete 1-1 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2023-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · Albacete 3-1 Eibar (Segunda División)
- 2022-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · Albacete 1-1 Eibar (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eibar win, at 74.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.