Estadio Carlos Belmonte · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Albacete vs Eldense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Albacete and 1.57 for Eldense, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Eldense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Eldense win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albacete home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eldense away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eldense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 21% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Albacete and 1.57 for Eldense, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Albacete
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Granada CF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 0-2 (L)
Eldense
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oviedo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eldense win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.