Centro Sportivo Francesca Gianni · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Albalonga vs Scafatese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Albalonga and 1.67 for Scafatese, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Scafatese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Scafatese win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albalonga home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Scafatese away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Scafatese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Albalonga and 1.67 for Scafatese, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
Albalonga
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Monastir · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarrabus Ogliastra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aranova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Città di Anagni · 3-1 (W)
Scafatese
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cosenza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casertana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Campobasso FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Albalonga 1-4 Scafatese (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · Albalonga 0-3 Scafatese (Serie D - Girone G)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | Monastir | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Paganese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Unipomezia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Ossese | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Anzio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Trastevere | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Città di Anagni | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Aranova | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Albalonga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Afragolese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Budoni | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Latte Dolce | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Venafro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Scafatese win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.