Alberes Argelès vs Colomiers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Alberes Argelès and 1.45 for Colomiers, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Colomiers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Colomiers win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alberes Argelès home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colomiers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Alberes Argelès and 1.45 for Colomiers, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Alberes Argelès win29%

Draw26%

Colomiers win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–111.3%
1–29.0%
1–08.6%
0–28.2%

Recent form

Alberes Argelès

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SAG Cestas · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Agde · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Colomiers · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Onet-le-Château · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pau II · 2-0 (W)

Colomiers

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T17:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 1-4 Colomiers (National 3 - Group A)
2026-01-10T17:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 0-2 Colomiers (National 3 - Group A)
2025-02-15T18:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 2-1 Colomiers (National 3 - Group A)
2024-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 0-1 Colomiers (National 3 - Group A)
2024-04-13T17:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 0-0 Colomiers (National 3 - Group B)
2023-12-02T17:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 1-2 Colomiers (National 3 - Group B)
2023-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 1-2 Colomiers (National 3 - Group H)
2022-12-10T15:00:00.000Z · Alberes Argelès 2-0 Colomiers (National 3 - Group H)

National 3 - Group A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tarbes	26	14	8	4	26	47
2	Canet Roussillon	26	12	9	5	15	45
3	Colomiers	26	13	6	7	5	43
4	Onet-le-Château	26	11	6	9	0	39
5	Pau II	26	10	7	9	6	37
6	Anglet Genets	26	12	7	7	13	37
7	Bassin d'Arcachon Sud	26	9	9	8	2	36
8	Toulouse II	26	9	6	11	4	33
9	Castanet	26	8	8	10	-5	32
10	Blagnac	26	8	8	10	1	29
11	Lège-Cap-Ferret	26	6	10	10	-15	28
12	SAG Cestas	26	6	10	10	-16	28
13	Agde	26	6	6	14	-20	24
14	Alberes Argelès	26	5	6	15	-16	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Colomiers win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.