AlbinoLeffe · Referee M. Melloni · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Albinoleffe vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Albinoleffe and 0.90 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Albinoleffe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albinoleffe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arzignano Valchiampo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 61.4% vs market 49.7%, edge +11.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.7% | 61.4% | 1.63 | +11.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.1% | 69.6% | 1.44 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.2% | 38.4% | 2.60 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.6% | 68.8% | 1.45 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.3% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.4% | 31.2% | 3.21 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.2% | 61.6% | 1.62 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -11.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Albinoleffe
- 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 1-1 (D)
Arzignano Valchiampo
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Renate · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 1-2 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 1-2 Arzignano Valchiampo (Coppa Italia Serie C)
- 2026-02-15T16:30:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 2-0 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 0-0 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-01-04T16:30:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 1-1 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 1-1 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-03-05T17:30:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 0-0 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2023-10-28T14:15:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 1-0 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2023-02-18T16:30:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 1-5 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Albinoleffe 0-3 Arzignano Valchiampo (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Ospitaletto | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Pergolettese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alcione | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Lecco | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Desenzano Calvina | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Athletic Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | PRO Vercelli | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Novara | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 19 | Folgore Caratese | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 | Renate | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.