Albinoleffe vs Athletic Carpi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Albinoleffe and 1.47 for Athletic Carpi, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Albinoleffe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Albinoleffe win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.30 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Albinoleffe home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Carpi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albinoleffe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Albinoleffe and 1.47 for Athletic Carpi, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Albinoleffe win56%

Draw20%

Athletic Carpi win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–19.0%
1–17.8%
3–16.9%
2–26.6%
2–06.1%

Recent form

Albinoleffe

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus U23 · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-2 (L)

Athletic Carpi

2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs PRO Vercelli · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
3	Trento	10	5	5	0	10	20
4	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Albinoleffe win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.