Estadio Luis Franzini · Referee P. Silveira · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Albion FC vs Boston River Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Albion FC and 1.01 for Boston River, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Albion FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albion FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boston River away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albion FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Albion FC and 1.01 for Boston River, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.18 | 79.2% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.70 | 53.4% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 40.8% | 41.5% | 2.41 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.55 | 60.3% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 57.9% | 58.5% | 1.71 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.6% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 69.7% | 70.0% | 1.43 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.35 | 39.7% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 72.4% | 71.5% | 1.40 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 28.5% | 3.51 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 46.6% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.50 | 20.8% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Albion FC
- 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Largo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensor Sporting · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud · 1-3 (L)
Boston River
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenix · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progreso · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Montevideo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool Montevideo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.