· Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Albion FC vs Progreso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Albion FC and 0.63 for Progreso, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Albion FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Albion FC win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albion FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Progreso away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albion FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 29% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Albion FC and 0.63 for Progreso, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–014.1%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.9%
Recent form
Albion FC
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Largo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensor Sporting · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CA River Plate · 0-0 (D)
Progreso
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Montevideo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston River · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Nacional · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Albion FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Boston River | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | CA River Plate | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Danubio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Albion FC win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.