Jurong East Stadium · Analysis updated 21:06 UTC
Albirex Niigata S vs Hougang United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Albirex Niigata S and 1.15 for Hougang United, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Albirex Niigata S the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Albirex Niigata S win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Albirex Niigata S home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hougang United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albirex Niigata S to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Albirex Niigata S and 1.15 for Hougang United, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Albirex Niigata S
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Young Lions · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 1-0 (W)
Hougang United
- 2026-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanjong Pagar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balestier Khalsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata S · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Home United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanjong Pagar · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geylang International | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Home United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Albirex Niigata S | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tanjong Pagar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Albirex Niigata S win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.