Albirex Niigata vs Imabari Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.13 for Imabari, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Albirex Niigata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Albirex Niigata win

57.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Albirex Niigata home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imabari away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Albirex Niigata to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.13 for Imabari, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Albirex Niigata win58%

Draw21%

Imabari win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.9%
2–08.8%
1–08.8%
3–16.6%

Recent form

Albirex Niigata

2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 1-0 (W)

Imabari

2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-22T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	10	7	2	1	10	23
2	Omiya Ardija	10	5	5	0	11	20
3	Albirex Niigata	10	6	2	2	0	20
4	Kataller Toyama	10	5	3	2	9	18
5	Yokohama FC	10	5	2	3	6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	10	4	5	1	2	17
7	Oita Trinita	10	3	5	2	3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	3	4	3	2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	10	3	4	3	1	13
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	10	3	4	3	0	13
11	Jubilo Iwata	10	4	1	5	-1	13
12	Tokushima Vortis	10	4	1	5	-2	13
13	Montedio Yamagata	10	4	0	6	2	12
14	Iwaki	10	4	0	6	-4	12
15	Sagan Tosu	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Tochigi City	10	3	1	6	-1	10
17	Imabari	10	3	1	6	-8	10
18	Ventforet Kofu	10	3	1	6	-9	10
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	3	1	6	-11	10
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	2	2	6	-7	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Albirex Niigata win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.