· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Alcains vs Sertanense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Alcains and 1.07 for Sertanense, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Sertanense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcains home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sertanense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sertanense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Alcains and 1.07 for Sertanense, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Alcains
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Coimbra · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Marinhense · 0-1 (L)
Sertanense
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs O Elvas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.