· Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alcains and 1.22 for Vitoria Setubal, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Alcains the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcains home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitoria Setubal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcains to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Alcains and 1.22 for Vitoria Setubal, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Alcains
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Alverca II · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sertanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Coimbra · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Marinhense · 0-1 (L)
Vitoria Setubal
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcains · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude Évora · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.