Alcazar vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Alcazar and 0.98 for Malaga, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Alcazar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Alcazar win

51.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malaga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcazar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Alcazar and 0.98 for Malaga, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Alcazar win52%

Draw25%

Malaga win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.1%
1–111.9%
2–09.7%
2–19.5%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Alcazar

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Talayuela · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Talayuela · 2-1 (W)

Malaga

2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa del Rey table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pinatar	2	2	0	0	11	6
2	Prat	2	2	0	0	9	6
3	Anaitasuna	2	2	0	0	8	6
4	Lebrijana	2	2	0	0	6	6
5	Atletico Calatayud	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Alcazar	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Hortaleza	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Ribadesella CF	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Auriense	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	CD San Jose	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maracena	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Tavernes	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Güímar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Noja	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Talayuela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Baztán	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Ceuta 6 de Junio	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Tedeón	2	0	0	2	-8	0
19	San Rafael	2	0	0	2	-9	0
20	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alcazar win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.