Stadio Ernesto Breda · Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Alcione and 1.11 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Alcione the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcione home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desenzano Calvina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcione to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Alcione and 1.11 for Desenzano Calvina, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Alcione
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trento · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs PRO Vercelli · 2-2 (D)
Desenzano Calvina
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Trento | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Desenzano Calvina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Albinoleffe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcione | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pergolettese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Lecco | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | PRO Vercelli | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Juventus U23 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Athletic Carpi | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Folgore Caratese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Renate | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.