Alcione vs Trento Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Alcione and 1.53 for Trento, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Trento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Trento win

50.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alcione home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trento away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trento to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 24% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Alcione and 1.53 for Trento, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Alcione win24%

Draw26%

Trento win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.8%
1–112.2%
0–29.8%
1–29.3%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Alcione

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trento · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs PRO Vercelli · 2-2 (D)

Trento

2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-04T15:30:00.000Z · Alcione 0-1 Trento (Serie C - Girone A)
2025-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Alcione 2-0 Trento (Serie C - Girone A)
2025-03-17T19:30:00.000Z · Alcione 0-1 Trento (Serie C - Girone A)
2024-11-02T16:30:00.000Z · Alcione 0-1 Trento (Serie C - Girone A)

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
3	Trento	10	5	5	0	10	20
4	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Trento win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.