Estadio Municipal de San Blas · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Alcobendas Sport vs Trival Valderas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Alcobendas Sport and 1.36 for Trival Valderas, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Trival Valderas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alcobendas Sport home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trival Valderas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trival Valderas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Alcobendas Sport and 1.36 for Trival Valderas, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Alcobendas Sport
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Aranjuez · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Parla Escuela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Villanueva Pardillo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Adarve · 1-1 (D)
Trival Valderas
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Aranjuez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Móstoles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Colonia Moscardó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cala Pozuelo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Unión Adarve | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Galapagar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torrejón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Leganés II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Aranjuez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Parla Escuela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.