Alcochetense vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Alcochetense and 0.99 for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Alcochetense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Alcochetense win

69.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.46 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Alcochetense home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alcochetense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Alcochetense and 0.99 for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Alcochetense win70%

Draw17%

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–09.6%
2–19.5%
3–07.9%
3–17.8%
1–07.8%

Recent form

Alcochetense

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara B · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aljustrelense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Benfica · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imortal Albufeira · 1-1 (D)

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 2-5 (L)
2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense B · 0-0 (D)
2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Imortal Albufeira	5	3	1	1	7	10
2	Sintrense	5	3	1	1	6	10
3	Real	6	2	4	0	4	10
4	FC Serpa	5	2	3	0	4	9
5	Amora	5	2	2	1	2	8
6	Juventude Évora	6	2	2	2	-1	8
7	Lajense	6	2	1	3	0	7
8	Lagoa	5	1	3	1	0	6
9	Alcochetense	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Santa Clara B	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Portel	7	0	5	2	-4	5
13	1º Dezembro	4	1	2	1	-4	5
14	Aljustrelense	5	0	2	3	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alcochetense win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.